2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

What you need to know

This market asks where July 2026 will rank among the hottest Julys ever recorded in global history — first, second, or third place. A 'Yes' on '1st hottest' means July 2026 breaks or ties the all-time record for the hottest July ever measured. A 'Yes' on '2nd hottest' means it falls just short of the record but beats everything else. A 'Yes' on '3rd hottest' means it ranks third. These three options together cover the full range, so exactly one of them will resolve Yes. After July 2026 ends, NASA will publish its official Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index — a single number representing how much warmer that month was compared to a historical baseline. That number for July 2026 gets compared against every July on record going back to the late 1800s. Whichever ranking it lands in — 1st, 2nd, or 3rd — that option resolves Yes. Ties count: if July 2026 ties with another year's record, it qualifies for that rank. NASA must publish the data by August 31, 2026, or other credible sources will be used instead. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments that would matter most here are monthly global temperature reports released by NASA or NOAA in the months leading up to July 2026, as well as updates on ocean surface temperatures and whether an El Niño or La Niña pattern is active — both of which have historically pushed global temperatures up or down significantly. The market is notably split, with '1st hottest' at 57% and '3rd hottest' at 41% — which tells you participants broadly agree July 2026 will rank in the top three, but genuinely disagree on exactly where. The hard part is that global monthly temperatures depend on ocean heat, atmospheric patterns, and natural climate cycles that are difficult to forecast months in advance. The razor-thin 2% on '2nd hottest' is the real curiosity — it suggests the market sees landing precisely in second place as the least likely outcome of the three.

The odds right now

• 1st hottest+18.0 pts (1w)70%
• 3rd hottest-14.5 pts (1w)28%
• 2nd hottest-36.4 pts (1w)3%
• 4th or lower-10.3 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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