2026 Song of the Summer: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: which song will be the undisputed hit of summer 2026, the one that dominates the radio, playlists, and parties all season long? Specifically, it's asking which song spends the most weeks at number one on the Billboard Hot 100 chart during June, July, and August of 2026. A Yes on any listed song means that song outlasted every other track at the top of America's biggest singles chart across those three summer months. The market settles on whichever listed song sits at number one on the Billboard Hot 100 for the most weeks between June 1 and August 31, 2026, those weeks don't need to be back-to-back. If two songs tie, the one that comes first alphabetically wins, which is an unusual rule worth knowing. The judge is simply the official Billboard Hot 100 chart as published on Billboard's website. If that site becomes permanently unavailable, the market resolves to a catch-all 'Other' option. None of the recent news provided relates to this market. There are no headlines about summer 2026 music charts, the listed songs, or anything relevant to the Billboard Hot 100. To watch for things that actually matter here: chart position updates each week from Billboard, any major new song releases that could dominate the summer, and streaming numbers on platforms like Spotify and Apple Music, which heavily influence the Hot 100. Summer smash hits are genuinely hard to predict months in advance, viral moments, movie soundtracks, and surprise drops from major artists can shift everything overnight. The market is spread very thin, with the three listed songs each priced at just 2, 3%, which tells you most of the probability is sitting on songs not even named yet. The real uncertainty is that the 2026 Song of the Summer probably hasn't been released yet, or hasn't broken through yet, making this less a contest between known options and more a wide-open race.

The odds right now

• hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande-11.3 pts (1w)4%
• Midnight Sun - Zara Larsson-0.1 pts (1w)3%
• New Religion - Bebe Rexha & Faithless-3.0 pts (1w)1%
• Kingdom of Fear - Cameron Whitcomb-1.9 pts (1w)0%
• Freakin' Out - Dexter and The Moonrocks-3.3 pts (1w)0%
• Bangaranga - DARA-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• CHÉVERE - ARIA VEGA & Ryan Castro-0.8 pts (1w)0%
• Raindance - Dave & Tems-1.6 pts (1w)0%
• Babydoll - Dominic Fike-3.3 pts (1w)0%
• Talk To You - ANOTR & 54 Ultra-2.2 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve according to the listed song which holds the No.1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100 for the greatest number of weeks in the summer of 2026. For the purposes of this market, only Billboard Hot 100 charts with date labels for weeks in June, July, and August of 2026 will be considered. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.