2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

What you need to know

This market asks who will win the women's singles championship at the 2026 US Open tennis tournament. Each named player — Sabalenka, Swiatek, Rybakina — has her own Yes/No question: does she lift the trophy in New York in September 2026? A Yes means that specific player wins the whole tournament; a No means she doesn't, whether she loses in an early round, withdraws, or never enters. The remaining probability — everything not assigned to these three — goes to an "Other" outcome, meaning some other player wins. The market settles on whoever is officially declared the 2026 US Open Women's Singles champion, based on results from the official US Open website or widely confirmed reporting. The tournament runs August 23 to September 13, 2026, and a winner must be declared by October 31, 2026 — if the event is cancelled or pushed past that date, the market resolves as "Other" rather than Yes or No for any player. If a listed player becomes ineligible under tournament rules before winning, her market resolves No immediately. None of the provided news headlines are related to tennis or the 2026 US Open. There is no relevant recent news to summarize here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be: player injury announcements, ranking shifts heading into the summer hardcourt season, or any scheduling news from the USTA about the tournament itself. The spread here captures genuine unpredictability. Even Sabalenka at 22% — the market's top pick — means the market expects her to lose more than three times out of four. Grand Slam tournaments are brutal: 128 players enter, injuries strike without warning, form fluctuates across two weeks, and a single bad day ends any run. Beyond the top three, the remaining ~56% sits with the field — meaning the market thinks it's more likely than not that someone outside these three names wins the whole thing.

The odds right now

• Aryna Sabalenka-1.5 pts (1w)22%
• Iga Swiatek-1.5 pts (1w)12%
• Elena Rybakina+1.4 pts (1w)10%
• Coco Gauff+0.8 pts (1w)8%
• Mirra Andreeva+1.7 pts (1w)7%
• Naomi Osaka-0.1 pts (1w)5%
• Barbora Krejcikova+4.0 pts (1w)5%
• Jessica Pegula+1.4 pts (1w)5%
• Linda Noskova+2.3 pts (1w)5%
• Karolina Muchova+1.9 pts (1w)4%
• Amanda Anisimova-0.5 pts (1w)4%
• Clara Tauson+1.9 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 13, 2026

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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