2nd Largest Company end of July?

What you need to know

This market is asking which company will hold the number two spot in the world by total stock market value on July 31, 2026 — not number one, specifically the runner-up. Market cap is simply the total value investors place on a company: share price multiplied by number of shares. Right now the top spots globally are contested among Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet (Google's parent), and Microsoft, and they swap positions frequently as their stock prices move up and down. On July 31, 2026, after stock markets close for the day, whoever ranks second globally by market cap wins this market. The settlers will look at a consensus of credible financial news sources to confirm the ranking — so it's not one single data provider, but a general agreement across reliable outlets. One thing worth knowing: the criteria don't name a specific exchange or index, so if rankings differ slightly between sources, the resolvers will weigh them together. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market. They cover topics like an energy plant in India, geopolitical tensions near Taiwan, and Warren Buffett's charitable donations — nothing directly about the market valuations of Apple, Alphabet, or Nvidia. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes major earnings reports, big product launches, regulatory decisions, or broad market swings that shift these companies' stock prices significantly. The core difficulty is that stock prices move constantly, and the gap between these giants can be surprisingly thin. Apple currently leads the market's expectations at 79%, but Nvidia in particular has shown it can surge dramatically in short periods — its valuation has swung by hundreds of billions of dollars within single quarters. A strong AI earnings season, a product disappointment, or a broad tech sell-off could reshuffle the rankings before July 31. With over a year remaining, a lot can change.

The odds right now

• Apple+37.5 pts (1w)79%
• Alphabet-23.5 pts (1w)18%
• NVIDIA-15.0 pts (1w)4%
• Microsoft0%
• Tesla0%
• Saudi Aramco0%
• Amazon0%
• Broadcom0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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