Bank of Brazil decision in September?

What you need to know

This market asks what Brazil's central bank will do with its benchmark interest rate — called the Selic — at its September 2026 meeting. A 'Yes' on the leading option means the bank cuts the rate by a small, standard step (0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points). 'No Change' means the rate stays exactly where it is. The Selic is the rate that ripples through all borrowing costs in Brazil, so a cut generally means cheaper loans and looser financial conditions across the economy. The market settles based on the official decision announced by COPOM — Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee — at its meeting on September 14–15, 2026. Whatever rate change (or non-change) they announce, that's the outcome. One important edge case: if the meeting is cancelled or delayed so long that no decision comes before the next scheduled meeting, the market automatically resolves as 'No Change,' regardless of what Brazil's economy is doing at the time. None of the provided news headlines relate to Brazil's central bank or the Selic rate. To follow this market, the kinds of developments worth watching would be: Brazilian inflation data, official COPOM statements signaling their next move, and any major shifts in Brazil's economic growth or currency conditions. Monetary policy decisions depend on data that won't exist yet — inflation readings, growth figures, and global financial conditions between now and September 2026. The market currently leans toward a small cut (55%), with a meaningful chance of no change (39%), so this is a genuinely close call, not a foregone conclusion. Central banks also sometimes surprise markets. Brazil's inflation history adds another layer: if prices rise unexpectedly before the meeting, the calculus shifts quickly.

The odds right now

• No Change-9.0 pts (1w)40%
• 25 bps decrease-16.6 pts (1w)32%
• 50+ bps decrease-0.2 pts (1w)2%
• 50+ bps increase+1.0 pts (1w)2%
• 25 bps increase+0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 15, 2026

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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