Bank of England decision in July?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the Bank of England will change its main interest rate — called the Bank Rate — at its July 2026 meeting. The Bank Rate is the rate the Bank of England charges other banks to borrow money; when it changes, mortgage rates, savings rates, and loan costs across the UK tend to follow. A 'No Change' outcome means the rate stays exactly where it is. A '25 bps increase' means the rate rises by 0.25 percentage points — a small but meaningful step up that makes borrowing more expensive. This market settles based on the official announcement from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on July 30, 2026. Whatever the MPC decides that day — hold, raise, or cut — that is the outcome. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed so long that no decision comes before the next scheduled MPC meeting, the market automatically resolves as 'No Change.' One thing to note: any emergency rate change made outside of this specific meeting does not count toward resolution. None of the recent news provided is relevant to the Bank of England or UK interest rate policy. There are no headlines here about UK inflation, Bank of England statements, or MPC signals. The kind of news that would matter to watch for includes UK inflation data, MPC member speeches hinting at their thinking, or major shifts in the UK economy. The market is priced at 98% for no change, which means participants strongly expect the Bank of England to hold rates steady. At that level, the main uncertainty is not really 'which way will they go' — it is simply whether something surprising happens before July 30 that forces the MPC's hand, such as a sudden inflation spike or a financial shock. That kind of surprise is rare but not impossible. The slim 2% on a rate increase reflects that small, real possibility of the unexpected.

The odds right now

• No change-0.5 pts (1w)97%
• 25 bps increase+0.1 pts (1w)2%
• 50+ bps decrease-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 25 bps decrease-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 50+ bps increase-0.2 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 30, 2026

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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