Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of August 1: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking one simple question: will Ella Langley's song 'Choosin' Texas' be the number one song in America on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated August 1, 2026? The Billboard Hot 100 is the main ranking of the most popular songs in the US, based on streaming, radio airplay, and sales data from a given week. A Yes means the song sits at the very top of that chart that week. A No means something else knocked it off, and an answer called 'Other' exists if Billboard never publishes that chart. The market settles based on the official Billboard Hot 100 chart labeled 'Week of August 1, 2026,' which Billboard typically publishes on a Tuesday — in this case, around July 29, 2026. Whatever song Billboard lists at number one on that specific chart wins. If the chart is never published within 14 days of its expected date, the market resolves to 'Other' instead. One small technical note: if two songs somehow tie for first, the tiebreaker is alphabetical order by song title — an unlikely edge case, but worth knowing. None of the provided recent news headlines relate to this market. They cover geopolitical events and an unrelated TV recommendation. There is no music news here to point to. The kind of news that would actually matter for this market would be a major new song release going viral, a surprise hit from a big artist, or reports on 'Choosin' Texas' chart performance in the weeks leading up to August 1. At 98%, the market is nearly certain — it is not really treating this as a close race. The main remaining uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts 'Choosin' Texas' hold: a blockbuster new release from a major artist, a viral cultural moment boosting a competing song, or an unusual chart week. These things do happen occasionally in pop music, which is why the market is not at 100%. But the market is not pricing this as genuinely competitive — it is pricing it as a strong favorite with a small but real chance of surprise.

The odds right now

• Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley98%
• hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande1%
• Be Her - Ella Langley1%
• I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift0%
• Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo0%
• Janice STFU - Drake0%
• Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo0%
• The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 28, 2026

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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