Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %

What you need to know

This market asks how well Count Binface — a real British protest candidate who wears a robot costume and runs under a joke party — will do in a by-election in the Clacton constituency. A Yes on a higher bracket means he wins a surprisingly large share of votes; a lower bracket means most voters ignored him. It is a genuine question about protest voting, not a joke market — Binface has run in multiple UK elections and sometimes pulls notable numbers. The market settles based on the official vote percentage Binface receives in the Clacton by-election, as certified by Tendring District Council or UK Parliament records. The result must be confirmed by June 30, 2027 — if the election hasn't happened or the result isn't known by then, the market automatically drops to the lowest bracket (under 10%), regardless of what might have happened. If his actual percentage lands exactly on a bracket boundary, it counts toward the higher bracket. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market — they cover elections and politics in Nigeria, Malaysia, India, and Israel. There is no recent reporting here about the Clacton by-election or Count Binface. The key development to watch for would be an announcement of the official by-election date and confirmation that Binface has formally submitted his candidacy. The biggest unknown is simply whether the by-election happens at all before the June 2027 deadline — UK by-elections are not always scheduled quickly. Beyond timing, protest-vote share is genuinely hard to forecast: it depends on how many mainstream parties compete, how much media attention the race gets, and general voter mood. Binface received around 1% in some contests but climbed higher in others with lots of press coverage. The spread across three brackets reflects real uncertainty, not a clear favourite.

The odds right now

• Binface <10%33%
• Binface 10–20%20%
• Binface 20–30%20%
• Binface 30–40%9%
• Binface 40%+8%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2027

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

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