Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

What you need to know

This market is asking how popular Nigel Farage will be among voters if he runs in a by-election in Clacton, a constituency on the east coast of England. A by-election is a one-off local vote triggered when a sitting MP leaves their seat — in this case, because Farage reportedly resigned. The question isn't whether he wins the election outright; it's specifically about what percentage of total votes cast he personally receives, sorted into three ranges: below 70%, between 70–80%, or above 80%. The market settles based on Farage's official vote share from the Clacton by-election result. If he gets, say, 74% of valid votes, it resolves to the 70–80% bracket. There are two important edge cases: if a result falls exactly on a boundary (like exactly 70%), it goes to the higher bracket. And if Farage doesn't stand as a candidate, or if no confirmed result exists before June 30, 2027, the market automatically resolves to the lowest bracket — the 60–70% range — regardless of what happened. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. They cover elections in India, Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Delhi — not the Clacton by-election. There is no relevant recent news to report here. The development most worth watching for would be an official announcement of the by-election date and confirmation that Farage is standing as a candidate. The biggest uncertainty is whether this by-election has even happened yet, and whether Farage will actually stand. If he doesn't run, the market auto-resolves to the lowest bracket regardless. If he does run, predicting his exact vote share is genuinely difficult — by-elections often see unusual swings compared to general elections, turnout can be low and unpredictable, and the field of competing candidates matters a lot. The market currently prices the 70–80% range as most likely, but meaningful probability sits across all three brackets.

The odds right now

• Farage 70–80%34%
• Farage 60–70%27%
• Farage 80%+17%
• Farage 40–50%12%
• Farage 50–60%12%
• Farage <40%4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2027

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

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