Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Anthropic will bring back a specific AI model — called Claude Fable 5 or Claude Mythos — for regular US users before July 2, 2026. The model launched on June 9, 2026, but the US government ordered it suspended just three days later. A Yes means American users can sign up and use it publicly again before the deadline. A No means the suspension is still in effect when time runs out. The market settles Yes only if Anthropic restores fully public access — open to any US user, not just a private or invite-only group — and officially announces it before 11:59 PM ET on July 2, 2026. The model must be recognizably named Claude Fable 5 or Claude Mythos, or confirmed to be the same model by Anthropic or credible news coverage. A key catch: if Anthropic quietly labels a different model with the name, or only grants closed beta access, that does not count. None of the three recent headlines provided — covering political commentary, education policy, and geopolitics — appear to be directly related to this market. There is no recent news provided about Anthropic, Claude Fable 5, or the government directive that triggered the suspension. The most relevant developments to watch for would be any official statement from Anthropic or US government action lifting or extending the restriction. The odds have shifted dramatically in just two weeks — from 24% to 64% — which signals that something significant may have changed in the background, even though no relevant news was provided here. The core uncertainty is political: this suspension came from a government directive, and timelines for such decisions are genuinely hard to forecast. It is also unclear what conditions the government set, whether negotiations are ongoing, and whether Anthropic has any legal options to accelerate the process.

The odds right now

• July 177%
• June 2261%
• June 1519%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 2, 2026

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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