Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory

What you need to know

This market is asking: if a candidate named de la Espriella wins the Colombian presidential runoff, by how wide a margin will they win? The three options reflect different gap sizes between the winner and the runner-up — a very close win (0–5 percentage points), a moderate win (5–10 points), or a comfortable win (10–15 points). It is not asking who wins, but how decisively one side beats the other in the final vote count. After the June 21, 2026 runoff vote, the market settles based on the official certified results from Colombia's National Civil Registry. The key number is the gap between the top two candidates' vote shares — for example, if de la Espriella gets 55% and the opponent gets 48%, the margin is 7 points, landing in the 5–10% bracket. If results aren't officially confirmed by December 31, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other.' A recount would keep the market open until the count is finalized. None of the provided news headlines relate to the 2026 Colombian presidential election. To follow this market, the developments worth watching would be: first-round results showing which candidates advance to the runoff, national polling on candidate support, and any major campaign events or debates in Colombia in the weeks leading up to June 21. The election is still weeks away, and many things can shift the final margin — voter turnout, last-minute campaign moments, and how undecided voters break. The market currently leans toward a 5–10 point victory for de la Espriella (56%), but margins in runoff elections can compress or expand quickly. There is also a structural uncertainty: the market only covers de la Espriella winning, so if another candidate wins instead, these brackets would not apply and the market would resolve differently.

The odds right now

• de la Espriella 5-10%56%
• de la Espriella 10-15%17%
• de la Espriella 0-5%14%
• Cepeda Castro Win11%
• de la Espriella 15%+5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 22, 2026

The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.