Core CPI MoM - July 2026
What you need to know
This market is asking: by how much did everyday prices rise in July 2026, once you strip out food and energy costs? That stripped-down measure is called 'Core CPI' — it focuses on things like rent, clothing, and medical care, deliberately leaving out groceries and gas because those prices bounce around a lot. The market offers three possible answers: prices rose 0.1%, 0.2%, or 0.3% compared to the month before. A 0.2% reading would mean inflation is ticking along at a slow, steady pace; 0.3% means it heated up a bit; 0.1% means it nearly flatlined. This market settles — 'resolves' means it gets its final answer — on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its official CPI report for July. Whatever one-decimal-point number they print for core inflation (all items minus food and energy, seasonally adjusted) is the answer this market uses. One thing worth knowing: if the BLS delays the release for any reason, the market stays open until the next scheduled CPI report date, and if data still isn't available by then, it falls back to the most recent month that does have data. No recent news was provided that is clearly relevant to U.S. core inflation in July 2026 — the one headline available is about mining law reform in Congo, which has no direct connection to this question. The kinds of developments actually worth watching here would be U.S. jobs reports, Federal Reserve statements, rent price trends, or any signs of tariff-related price pressures feeding into consumer goods. Monthly inflation prints are genuinely hard to forecast with precision, even for professional economists. The gap between 0.2% and 0.3% — just one-tenth of a percentage point — can hinge on a single category like shelter costs or airline fares moving unexpectedly. The market currently leans heavily toward 0.2%, pricing it at about two-thirds probability, so the main uncertainty is less about a dramatic surprise and more about whether a modest upside reading (0.3%) materializes. Still, economic data always carries some chance of an unexpected result in either direction.
The odds right now
- 0.2%+32.5 pts (1w)76%
- 0.3%-29.2 pts (1w)15%
- ≤0.0%-34.8 pts (1w)5%
- 0.1%-39.3 pts (1w)5%
- 0.4%-41.3 pts (1w)2%
- 0.5%-39.9 pts (1w)1%
- 0.6%+-44.0 pts (1w)0%
Price history
0.2%
How this resolves
Resolves August 12, 2026
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in July 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Related
Other outcomes in this market
- 0.2%76%
- 0.3%15%
- ≤0.0%5%
- 0.1%5%
- 0.4%2%
- 0.5%1%
- 0.6%+0%
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