Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

What you need to know

This market is asking who the Democratic Party will choose as its presidential candidate for the 2028 election. Each candidate listed — Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, Ossoff, and others — has a separate Yes/No question: did that specific person win the nomination? A Yes means that person went through the primary process, got enough delegate support, and formally accepted the party's nomination at the Democratic National Convention. A No means someone else did. The market settles as Yes if the named person wins enough support in the Democratic primary process and officially accepts the nomination — meaning they stand up and say yes to being the party's candidate. The confirmation comes from official Democratic Party sources. One important detail: if the nominee is somehow replaced after being chosen — which is rare but happened in 2024 — the market still resolves based on who was originally nominated, not who ends up on the ballot in November. One piece of relevant news: Gavin Newsom, currently the highest-odds candidate at 19%, was recently quoted attacking Trump sharply — calling him 'the most corrupt president in American history.' That kind of public positioning is consistent with someone building a national profile ahead of a presidential run, though it doesn't confirm anything about 2028 plans. No news directly about the other candidates' 2028 intentions was provided. The 2028 Democratic primary is genuinely wide open. No single candidate is above 20%, which means the market sees a highly fragmented field where most scenarios end with someone other than the current frontrunner winning. The primary is still over two years away — plenty of time for new candidates to enter, current ones to drop out, and the political landscape to shift completely. Scandals, policy shifts, election results in 2026, and even candidates' personal decisions could all reshape the race entirely.

The odds right now

• Gavin Newsom-0.7 pts (1w)19%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+2.4 pts (1w)15%
• Jon Ossoff+1.3 pts (1w)12%
• Kamala Harris+0.3 pts (1w)7%
• Josh Shapiro+0.2 pts (1w)5%
• Pete Buttigieg+1.1 pts (1w)5%
• Jon Stewart+0.6 pts (1w)2%
• Andy Beshear-0.1 pts (1w)2%
• Rahm Emanuel+0.5 pts (1w)2%
• Ro Khanna+0.5 pts (1w)2%
• Wes Moore-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• James Talarico-0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 7, 2028

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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