ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise its key interest rate at its September 2026 meeting — specifically by 0.25 percentage points (called 25 basis points, or 'bps'). The ECB sets interest rates that affect borrowing costs across the eurozone: mortgages, business loans, savings accounts. A 'Yes' on the increase means the ECB makes borrowing more expensive; 'No change' means they leave rates exactly where they are. The market settles based on the official ECB announcement from its September 9–10, 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate goes up by 25 bps, that outcome wins. If the ECB holds rates steady, 'No change' wins. One edge case to know: if the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the next scheduled meeting, the market automatically resolves as 'No change' — even if nothing was actually decided. Emergency rate moves outside this meeting do not count. None of the provided recent headlines directly concern the ECB or eurozone interest rate policy. The news touches on India's inflation, oil prices, gold, and a Middle East truce — useful global context, but not specific evidence about what the ECB is signaling. To follow this market, the most important things to watch would be eurozone inflation data, ECB officials' public statements, and any major shifts in the European economic outlook. The main challenge is how much can change between now and September 2026. The market currently prices a rate increase at around 69%, but ECB decisions depend heavily on inflation data, economic growth, and global shocks — none of which are fully predictable more than a year out. A surprise drop in eurozone inflation, a recession signal, or a global financial shock could shift ECB thinking completely. The ECB also decides meeting by meeting, so earlier 2026 decisions will heavily shape what happens in September.

The odds right now

• 25 bps increase+34.5 pts (1w)69%
• No change-32.5 pts (1w)32%
• 50+ bps increase+0.4 pts (1w)1%
• 25 bps decrease-0.9 pts (1w)0%
• 50+ bps decrease-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 10, 2026

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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