Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates completely unchanged across three back-to-back meetings — in late April, mid-June, and late July 2026. The Fed's interest rate is a number that influences how expensive it is to borrow money across the whole economy. A 'pause' simply means the Fed decides to leave that number exactly where it is. Three pauses in a row would mean no cuts, no hikes — just holding steady for roughly four months. The market settles based on the official announcement after each of three specific Fed meetings: April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29, 2026. If all three announcements show the rate stayed the same, it resolves Yes to 'Pause–Pause–Pause.' If the Fed cuts rates even once across those three meetings, that combination falls under 'Other' — and so does any rate hike. One important edge case: emergency rate changes made outside these scheduled meetings are completely ignored and don't count toward resolution. The two news items provided — about a church anniversary and a religious organization — have no connection to Federal Reserve policy or interest rates. There is no relevant recent news available to point to here. What would matter to watch for is any official statement from Fed officials about their rate outlook, new inflation data, or significant shifts in the U.S. jobs market, since those are the signals the Fed weighs most heavily. The market prices the all-pause outcome at around 79%, so it is heavily leaning one way — but that remaining 21% reflects real uncertainty. The main question is whether something unexpected forces the Fed's hand before July: a sharp rise in inflation could push toward a hike, while a sudden economic slowdown could push toward a cut. Fed decisions depend on data that hasn't been released yet. Three meetings is also a fairly long stretch of time, and surprises — economic or geopolitical — can shift the picture quickly.

The odds right now

• Pause–Pause–Pause-12.0 pts (1w)79%
• Other+13.0 pts (1w)22%
• Pause–Pause–Cut-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 29, 2026

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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