Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the U.S. Federal Reserve do with interest rates across three specific meetings in the summer of 2026? The Fed sets a key interest rate that influences borrowing costs across the whole economy — mortgages, car loans, business credit. At each meeting, they can hold it steady (a "pause"), lower it (a "cut"), or raise it (a "hike"). This market tracks the sequence of those three decisions in a row — for example, Pause–Pause–Pause means the Fed holds steady all three times and changes nothing. This market settles based on the official announcements from three FOMC meetings: June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16, 2026. After each meeting, the Fed publishes a statement saying whether the rate went up, down, or stayed the same. The combination of those three outcomes determines which option wins. Anything involving a rate hike — or any combination not listed — falls into "Other," which is currently the leading option at 57%. One important edge case: emergency rate changes between meetings don't count, only the scheduled ones. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market. The headlines cover topics like Indian foreign aid, political news from India and China, and health advice — none of which relate to U.S. Federal Reserve policy. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes U.S. inflation data, jobs reports, or statements from Fed officials about their plans for interest rates. Three separate decisions from one of the world's most closely watched institutions is genuinely hard to forecast. The Fed responds to incoming economic data — inflation, employment, growth — that nobody can fully predict months in advance. The "Other" bucket winning at 57% partly reflects how many possible sequences exist beyond a clean Pause–Pause–Pause. Trade policy, global slowdowns, or unexpected inflation surprises could all shift the Fed's thinking between now and September. The market is leaning toward something other than three straight pauses, but the exact path remains open.

The odds right now

• Other+34.5 pts (1w)60%
• Pause–Pause–Pause-28.5 pts (1w)39%
• Pause–Pause–Cut-4.5 pts (1w)1%
• Pause–Cut–Pause-0.2 pts (1w)0%
• Pause–Cut–Cut-0.5 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 16, 2026

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.