Highest temperature in Ankara on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest part of the day feel like in Ankara on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it's asking whether the peak temperature that day hits 28°C (about 82°F), 29°C (about 84°F), or 30°C (about 86°F). Those are fairly close to each other — we're talking about the difference between a warm summer day and a slightly hotter one. The market currently thinks 29°C is the most likely outcome, with 61% confidence. After July 15, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market will check the Weather Underground website for the Esenboğa International Airport weather station — that's Ankara's main airport — and read the single highest temperature recorded that day. Whichever whole-degree Celsius number that station shows becomes the answer. One important detail: only temperatures logged before the first reading of July 16 count. Any corrections made after that cutoff are ignored. There is no human judgment call here — it's just whatever that one station reports. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. That's not unusual for a weather question about a date over a year away — there's nothing to report yet. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal forecasts for central Turkey in mid-July, and any early weather model outlooks for that specific week. The honest answer is that predicting a single day's high temperature more than a year out is genuinely hard. Weather forecasts are only reliable about 10 days ahead. The three options here — 28, 29, and 30°C — are all within normal range for Ankara in July, so none is outlandish. The market's spread across all three reflects real uncertainty. There's also a practical wrinkle: everything depends on one specific airport weather station, so a sensor quirk or unusual local condition that day could shift the reading by a degree.

The odds right now

• 29°C62%
• 28°C23%
• 30°C18%
• 27°C1%
• 31°C1%
• 26°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 25°C or below0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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