Highest temperature in Ankara on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of the day be in Ankara on July 19, 2026? The options are specific temperature bands — 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C (roughly 88°F, 90°F, or 91°F). You're not predicting the average temperature for the day, just the single highest reading recorded at Ankara's Esenboğa Airport weather station during that day. The market currently leans toward 32°C being the peak, with 33°C as the second most likely outcome. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature logged at Esenboğa International Airport on July 19, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever whole-degree Celsius figure that source shows as the daily high determines the winning band. The reading is locked in once the first data point from July 20 appears — after that, any corrections to the July 19 data are ignored. So the source and the timing of when that source updates both matter. The news provided — about university enrollment trends in North Dakota — has no connection to Ankara's weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. For this kind of market, what would actually matter is short-range weather forecasts for Ankara in mid-July 2026, or any climatological data about typical temperatures at that station during that time of year. Weather is genuinely hard to pin down to a single degree, even one day out — let alone a year in advance. Mid-July in Ankara is typically hot and dry, which is why 32°C and 33°C dominate the odds, but a cooler air mass, cloud cover, or an unusually calm day could push the reading toward 31°C. The one-degree gaps between options mean even small forecast errors change the outcome. The reading also comes from one specific station — airport readings can differ from the city center.

The odds right now

• 32°C53%
• 33°C23%
• 31°C18%
• 34°C7%
• 30°C2%
• 35°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 28°C or below0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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