Highest temperature in Austin on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Austin, Texas get on July 14, 2026? Specifically, it's asking which two-degree temperature band will contain that day's peak temperature — measured at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport weather station. The current odds say the most likely outcome is a high of 82 or 83°F, with 80–81°F as the second most common guess, and 84–85°F third. Think of it as a group trying to guess whether Austin will have a mild summer day, a warm one, or a hot one. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Austin-Bergstrom Airport on July 14, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. Whichever 2-degree range (80–81, 82–83, 84–85, etc.) contains that peak reading wins. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree — no decimals. One small edge case: the market can't officially close until the first data point from July 15 appears on Weather Underground, giving the record a brief window to be revised before it locks in. The two news headlines provided are unrelated to Austin weather — one is about politics in Malaysia, the other about a university scholarship program in Asia. There's no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date: any long-range weather forecasts for Central Texas in mid-July, and whether a heat dome or unusual weather system is expected to affect the region. Mid-July in Austin is reliably hot, so the 80–85°F range the market clusters around is consistent with typical summer highs — but weather is genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. A passing storm could keep the high unusually low; a stalled heat dome could push it well above 85°F. The market's spread across three bands reflects real uncertainty. The further out you look, the less any forecast means, and a full year away, this is essentially a question about climate averages rather than actual conditions.

The odds right now

• 82-83°F35%
• 80-81°F27%
• 84-85°F26%
• 78-79°F8%
• 86-87°F5%
• 88-89°F1%
• 77°F or below1%
• 96°F or higher0%
• 90-91°F0%
• 92-93°F0%
• 94-95°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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