Highest temperature in Austin on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Austin get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it asks which two-degree temperature band — like 80–81°F, 78–79°F, or 82–83°F — will contain the single highest temperature reading of that day at Austin's main airport. Think of it as guessing the peak of the thermometer for one specific summer afternoon in Austin, Texas. After July 15, 2026 ends, the market checks Weather Underground's records for Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (station code KAUS) and finds the highest temperature logged that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit. Whatever two-degree range that number falls into wins. The data is locked in once the first reading from July 16 appears — any corrections to the July 15 data made after that point are ignored. No relevant recent news was provided — the one headline listed is about Malaysian student loan policy, which has no connection to Austin weather. What would actually matter to watch as July 15 approaches: any extended heat forecasts or unusual weather patterns for central Texas in mid-July 2026. July weather is genuinely hard to pin down more than a day or two in advance, even for meteorologists with full forecasting tools. Mid-July in Austin is reliably hot — highs in the upper 90s to low 100s are typical — but that actually makes the current odds, which cluster around 78–83°F, feel notably cool for Austin in summer. It's worth noting the market is currently priced well below typical July highs for the city, which itself is a source of uncertainty worth sitting with.

The odds right now

• 80-81°F40%
• 78-79°F24%
• 82-83°F21%
• 84-85°F11%
• 76-77°F7%
• 75°F or below3%
• 86-87°F1%
• 90-91°F0%
• 88-89°F0%
• 92-93°F0%
• 94°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.