Highest temperature in Austin on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Austin, Texas get on July 19, 2026? Specifically, it's asking which temperature range — 92-93°F, 94-95°F, or 96-97°F — will contain the single highest temperature reading of the day at Austin's main airport. Think of it as a guessing game for the peak of the afternoon heat: will it be a hot day, a very hot day, or an extremely hot day by Austin's standards? After July 19, 2026 ends, the market checks Weather Underground's official records for Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (station code KAUS) and finds the highest temperature recorded that day in whole-degree Fahrenheit. Whatever range that number falls into wins — so if the high is 95°F, the '94-95°F' outcome settles as correct. The market waits until the first data point from July 20 appears before finalizing, to allow any late corrections to that day's readings. The two recent headlines provided — one about an IMF adviser appointment and one about a port development in Pakistan — have no connection to Austin weather or this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date are seasonal weather forecasts for central Texas in mid-July, or any early signs of an unusual heat dome or cooling pattern over the region. Mid-July in Austin is reliably hot, which is why the market clusters around 94-95°F — that range alone captures nearly half the probability. The genuine uncertainty is how far temperatures swing from the typical pattern. A stalled high-pressure system can push the day well above 96°F; a rare cloudy or stormy afternoon could hold it to 92-93°F. Weather forecasts become meaningfully accurate only a few days out, so right now the question is mostly about historical ranges and climate patterns, not a specific forecast.

The odds right now

• 94-95°F47%
• 96-97°F28%
• 92-93°F17%
• 98-99°F8%
• 90-91°F5%
• 88-89°F1%
• 100-101°F1%
• 102°F or higher0%
• 83°F or below0%
• 84-85°F0%
• 86-87°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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