Highest temperature in Beijing on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, how hot will Beijing get? Specifically, it's asking you to pick the peak temperature for that single day — the hottest reading recorded at Beijing's main international airport. The three choices are 33°C, 34°C, or 35°C (roughly 91°F, 93°F, and 95°F). Think of it as guessing the afternoon high on one specific summer day in Beijing. After July 14, 2026 ends, the market checks one specific source — Weather Underground's record for Beijing Capital International Airport (station code ZBAA) — and reads the single highest temperature logged that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever temperature bucket that number falls into wins. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 15 appears on that site, so last-minute revisions that come in before that cutoff still count. No recent news relevant to Beijing's July 14 weather was provided. The one headline available is about Malaysia's Health Ministry and has no connection to this market. The kind of news that would actually matter here would be seasonal weather forecasts for Beijing, or climate pattern reports for northern China in mid-July — none of which are available in what was shared. Weather is genuinely hard to pin down even one day out, let alone a year away. Mid-July in Beijing is reliably hot — highs in the low-to-mid 30s are normal — but the exact peak on any single day depends on cloud cover, wind, and whether a heat system is sitting over the region that week. The market currently spreads probability across three close temperatures (33°C, 34°C, 35°C), which reflects how tight and hard to distinguish those outcomes really are from this distance.

The odds right now

• 34°C35%
• 35°C31%
• 33°C17%
• 36°C12%
• 37°C3%
• 32°C2%
• 31°C or below1%
• 38°C1%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 41°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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