Highest temperature in Beijing on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, how hot will Beijing get at its peak? Specifically, it's asking which temperature — 35°C, 36°C, or 37°C (roughly 95°F, 97°F, or 99°F) — will match the single highest reading of the day at Beijing Capital International Airport. Think of it like guessing the top of the thermometer for one summer afternoon in Beijing. Each option is a specific whole-number degree, not a range, so precision matters. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged at Beijing Capital International Airport (station code ZBAA) on July 15, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. It rounds to the nearest whole degree Celsius — no decimals. Whatever the peak reading is that day, the matching option wins. The market won't officially close until the first data point from July 16 appears on that site, locking in the final number. Any late corrections to the July 15 data are accepted until that point, then ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of update that would matter here is a seasonal weather forecast for Beijing in mid-July 2026 — for example, a long-range outlook from a meteorological agency or unusual climate pattern news. Those forecasts don't exist yet at meaningful precision for a date this far out. July in Beijing is reliably hot, which is why all three leading options cluster between 35°C and 37°C — but picking the exact peak degree on one specific day more than a year away is genuinely difficult. Daily highs in Beijing's summers vary meaningfully based on whether a heat dome, rain system, or wind shift passes through that week. Even professional weather models can't pin down a single day's peak temperature more than about two weeks in advance. The spread across the three options reflects that honest uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 36°C38%
• 37°C35%
• 35°C18%
• 38°C6%
• 34°C4%
• 33°C1%
• 39°C1%
• 32°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 31°C or below0%
• 41°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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