Highest temperature in Beijing on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, what will the hottest moment of the day feel like in Beijing? Specifically, it's asking you to pick a temperature range — 31°C or below (roughly 88°F or cooler), 32°C (about 90°F), 33°C (about 91°F), or presumably higher ranges — for the single highest temperature reading recorded that day at Beijing's main international airport. It's a weather snapshot question, not a trend or average. The market settles based on the peak temperature logged at Beijing Capital International Airport on July 16, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius, as reported by Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. Whoever checks first after midnight ends the window — once the next day's first data point appears, the reading is locked in, even if Weather Underground later corrects it. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree, so a reading of 32.7°C would count as 32°C, not 33°C. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development worth watching closer to July 2026 would be seasonal forecasts for East Asia's summer, or any reports about unusual heat patterns in North China — but those are typically only reliable a week or two before the date itself. Summer weather in Beijing is genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. July 16 sits in the heart of Beijing's hot season, so temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s°C are historically common — which is exactly why the market spreads its odds fairly evenly across the 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C buckets, with no single outcome above 26%. A passing storm, a shift in the monsoon front, or an unusual heat surge could all push the reading in either direction. Long-range weather forecasting carries real limits this far out.

The odds right now

• 33°C26%
• 32°C24%
• 31°C or below21%
• 34°C18%
• 35°C7%
• 36°C4%
• 37°C1%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 41°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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