Highest temperature in Beijing on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will the hottest reading of the day be at Beijing's main airport? The three options are 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C — that's roughly 88°F, 90°F, and 91°F respectively. Think of it as a weather forecast turned into a question with specific temperature buckets. Whichever bucket contains the actual peak temperature that day wins. The market currently leans toward 33°C, which the crowd prices at 38%. At the end of July 19, 2026, someone will look up the highest recorded temperature for that day at Beijing Capital International Airport on the weather website Wunderground — that single number, rounded to a whole degree Celsius, decides everything. Whichever option (31°C, 32°C, or 33°C) matches that reading wins. One small edge case: the market stays open until the first data point for July 20 appears, meaning late corrections to the July 19 reading can still count — but once July 20 data is published, the number is locked in. No relevant news was provided for this market. The headline included is about an Indian education bill and has nothing to do with Beijing's weather. What would actually matter here is Beijing weather forecasts as July 19 approaches, or historical temperature data for that date showing what ranges are typical during that part of summer. Daily high temperatures are genuinely hard to pin down precisely, even close to the date. Beijing in mid-July is reliably hot, but whether the peak lands at 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C can depend on small shifts in wind, cloud cover, or a passing weather system. The spread across the three options is fairly even, which reflects real meteorological uncertainty — not one outcome dominating. The fact that this question resolves to a single whole-degree reading also means a temperature like 33.4°C and 32.6°C would land in different buckets despite feeling nearly identical.

The odds right now

• 32°C73%
• 33°C17%
• 34°C4%
• 35°C0%
• 28°C or below0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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