Highest temperature in Beijing on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, how hot will Beijing get? Specifically, it's asking you to pick a temperature bracket for the single highest temperature of that day — measured at Beijing Capital International Airport. A result of '32°C or higher' means a hot summer day above roughly 90°F; '30°C' or '31°C' means slightly cooler, but still warm by most standards. Think of it as a one-day weather forecast turned into a multiple-choice question. At the end of July 20, 2026, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for the Beijing Capital International Airport station (airport code ZBAA) and reads the single highest temperature recorded that day in whole degrees Celsius — no decimals. Whichever bracket that number falls into wins. The market won't officially settle until the first data point for July 21 appears on that site, giving a small window for any last-minute corrections to the July 20 reading. No relevant recent news was provided — the one headline available is about an unrelated education policy bill in India. For a market like this, the news that would actually matter is closer-range Beijing weather forecasts, any unusual heat-wave warnings for mid-to-late July 2026, or climate pattern reports for that region. Those are worth watching as the date approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year away — meaning any forecast right now is essentially a statistical guess based on historical averages. The market spreads probability fairly evenly across three brackets, which reflects real uncertainty. July 20 in Beijing is historically a hot summer day, but the difference between 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C+ is exactly the kind of fine-grained call that even professional meteorologists can't reliably make weeks in advance, let alone a year ahead.

The odds right now

• 32°C or higher28%
• 31°C23%
• 30°C22%
• 29°C16%
• 28°C10%
• 27°C8%
• 26°C1%
• 25°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 23°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.