Highest temperature in Busan on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, how hot will it get in Busan, South Korea? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day — will the peak be around 30°C (86°F), 31°C (87.8°F), or 32°C (89.6°F) or higher? The market is essentially a temperature forecast for one specific summer day in a coastal South Korean city, broken into narrow ranges. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded on July 14, 2026 at the Gimhae International Airport weather station, as shown on Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius — no decimals. Whichever temperature bucket (30°C, 31°C, 32°C, etc.) contains that peak reading wins. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 15 appears before officially closing, to catch any last-minute corrections to the July 14 record. There is no specific recent news available for this market. Since the date is over a year away, the most relevant things to watch for closer to July 2026 would be seasonal weather outlooks for South Korea, or any unusual heat patterns in the Korean Peninsula that summer. A year out, no weather model can reliably forecast a single day's peak temperature — that is genuinely unknowable this far in advance. What we can say is that mid-July is deep summer in Busan, a humid coastal city, so 30°C days are historically common. The market prices 30°C at around 81%, reflecting that historical base rate. The main uncertainty is simply natural weather variability: an unusually hot air mass, or a cooler sea breeze, can easily shift the peak by a degree or two either way.

The odds right now

• 30°C99%
• 31°C1%
• 32°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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