Highest temperature in Busan on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will the highest temperature of the day be in Busan, South Korea? The answer isn't Yes or No — it's a temperature bucket. The market currently gives 31°C the most weight (56%), followed by 30°C (25%), then 32°C (14%). Think of it like a group of people guessing the day's peak heat, each picking a number, with 31°C being the most popular guess. This settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded on July 19, 2026 at the Gimhae International Airport weather station near Busan — pulled from Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so 31.4°C and 31°C would both count as 31°C. The market waits until the first data point from July 20 appears on that page before it officially closes, giving time for any last-minute corrections to the day's readings. The one news item provided — about a commission in Pakistan — has nothing to do with Busan's weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch is any emerging weather forecast for Busan around July 19, 2026, or reports of unusual heat patterns over the Korean Peninsula as that date approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to nail down to a single degree, even a day or two out — let alone over a year away. July is Busan's rainy season (called jangma), when clouds, humidity, and rain can push temperatures in unexpected directions. A sunny day could push the high toward 32°C or above; a cloudy or rainy one might keep it at 30°C or below. The spread across three close options reflects that one-degree differences are real but hard to forecast this far in advance.

The odds right now

• 29°C100%
• 30°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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