Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how warm will Cape Town get on July 14, 2026? Specifically, it's asking which temperature — 15°C, 16°C, or 17°C (roughly 59°F, 61°F, or 63°F) — will be the highest reading of the day at Cape Town's airport. July is mid-winter in Cape Town, so we're talking cool, mild temperatures, not summer heat. The market is essentially a weather forecast broken into three narrow one-degree buckets. On July 14, 2026, someone checks the Weather Underground website for Cape Town International Airport and reads the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whatever that number is — 15, 16, or 17 — that's the winning outcome. The reading is locked in once the first data point from July 15 appears on the site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; anything after does not. There is no human judgment involved — it's just reading one number from one source. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The only headline is about US healthcare policy, which has no connection to Cape Town's weather. What would actually matter here is closer to the date: a Cape Town weather forecast for July 14, 2026, or historical temperature records for that date at the airport, which could help calibrate expectations. Weather in a narrow one-degree window is genuinely hard to pin down, even for professional forecasters — and this market resolves to a single degree of precision, which makes it especially sensitive to small changes. The market currently splits most of its probability between 15°C and 16°C, with 17°C less favored, but a slightly warmer or cooler air mass passing through could easily shift the outcome. The forecast for a specific day more than a year away is essentially unknown today, so the current odds reflect historical patterns more than any real forecast.

The odds right now

• 16°C35%
• 15°C34%
• 17°C18%
• 14°C10%
• 18°C4%
• 13°C3%
• 19°C or higher1%
• 12°C1%
• 11°C0%
• 10°C0%
• 9°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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