Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how warm will Cape Town get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it asks which single temperature — 17°C, 18°C, 19°C, or something else — will be the highest reading of the day at Cape Town's airport. July 15 is the middle of winter in Cape Town (it's in the Southern Hemisphere), so the temperatures being discussed — roughly 17 to 19°C — reflect cool, mild winter days, not summer heat. The market settles based on the official peak temperature recorded at Cape Town International Airport on July 15, 2026, as logged by Weather Underground. Whatever the single highest reading is that day — measured in whole degrees Celsius — determines which option wins. The reading is locked in once the first data point for July 16 appears on that site. One edge case worth knowing: if Weather Underground revises the temperature after that first July 16 data point is published, the revision won't count. None of the provided news headlines relate to Cape Town, weather, or anything relevant to this market. There is no recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch is any extended weather forecast for Cape Town in mid-July, particularly whether a cold front or an unusually warm air mass is expected around that date. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market resolves over a year from now — so any forecast today is essentially useless for pinning down a single degree. The market currently leans toward 18°C (43%), with 17°C close behind (27%), reflecting typical Cape Town winter patterns, but a single passing cold front or a break of sun could easily shift the peak by a degree or two either way. One degree of difference is the entire gap between winning options here, which makes this unusually sensitive to small variations.

The odds right now

• 18°C45%
• 17°C27%
• 19°C17%
• 16°C7%
• 20°C5%
• 15°C1%
• 21°C1%
• 14°C1%
• 22°C or higher0%
• 12°C or below0%
• 13°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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