Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, how hot will it get in Chengdu? Specifically, it's asking you to pick which single temperature — 37°C, 38°C, 39°C, or another option — will match the peak reading of that day. Think of it like guessing the top number on a thermometer at Chengdu's main airport on one specific summer afternoon. Each option is a single degree target, not a range, so precision matters — 38°C and 39°C are different outcomes. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on July 14, 2026, as shown on the weather-tracking website Weather Underground. Whatever whole-degree Celsius number appears as the day's peak reading determines the winner. The result can only be confirmed after the first data point from July 15 appears on that site — meaning the day must fully close before settlement. Importantly, any temperature corrections made before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. What would matter to watch for as July 14, 2026 approaches: seasonal weather forecasts for Chengdu in mid-July, any regional heat wave alerts for Sichuan province, and closer to the date, short-range meteorological forecasts for the city. July is deep in Chengdu's hot, humid summer, so extreme heat is not unusual. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market is over a year away — making it essentially impossible to forecast with confidence right now. Chengdu's July highs cluster in the 35–40°C range, which is why the market spreads its odds across 37°C, 38°C, and 39°C fairly evenly. Even on the day itself, temperature swings of a single degree can depend on cloud cover, humidity, or a passing storm — factors that are unpredictable until very close to the date.

The odds right now

• 38°C43%
• 39°C39%
• 37°C11%
• 40°C5%
• 36°C2%
• 41°C1%
• 42°C0%
• 34°C or below0%
• 35°C0%
• 43°C0%
• 44°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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