Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, how hot will Chengdu get at its peak? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day at Chengdu's main airport weather station. The three leading answers — 37°C, 38°C, and 39°C — are roughly 99°F, 100°F, and 102°F. You're essentially guessing which of those bands the thermometer tops out in during the hottest part of the afternoon. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature (in whole degrees Celsius) recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on July 15, 2026, as logged on Weather Underground. Whatever single-degree reading that station reports as the day's peak determines which option wins. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 16 appears — after that, any corrections to the July 15 data are ignored. No relevant weather news was provided — the only headline is about Malaysian student loan policy, which has nothing to do with Chengdu's temperature. What would actually matter here: any forecasts for Chengdu in mid-July 2026, news about unusual heat waves in central China, or climate anomaly reports for that region in summer. Mid-July in Chengdu is reliably hot, so the range of serious possibilities is relatively narrow — that's why three adjacent temperature bands each hold meaningful odds. But within that narrow band, daily weather is genuinely hard to pin down months in advance. A passing cloud system, a front moving through, or a slightly wetter-than-usual stretch could shift the peak by a degree or two. One degree is all it takes to change which option wins, making this very sensitive to small, unpredictable variations.

The odds right now

• 37°C30%
• 38°C28%
• 39°C19%
• 36°C19%
• 40°C4%
• 35°C4%
• 34°C2%
• 33°C0%
• 41°C or higher0%
• 31°C or below0%
• 32°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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