Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, what will the hottest part of the day feel like in Chengdu? Specifically, it asks which single temperature — 37°C, 38°C, 39°C, or another value — will be the peak reading that day. To picture the stakes: 37°C is about 99°F (a very hot summer day), 38°C is around 100°F, and 39°C is roughly 102°F. You're essentially guessing which degree marker the afternoon heat will land on at Chengdu's main airport weather station. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on July 16, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Celsius — no decimals. Whichever answer bracket contains that number wins. The market won't close until the first data point from July 17 appears on that site, giving time for any same-day corrections to be captured. After July 17's first reading is published, no further revisions count. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching closer to the date would be: extended weather forecasts for Chengdu in mid-July 2026, any reports of unusual heat patterns over central China that summer, or climate anomaly alerts from Chinese meteorological agencies. Weather on a specific future date is genuinely hard to predict, and the precision required here makes it harder. The market isn't just asking 'will it be hot?' — it's asking which exact whole-degree value the peak hits. Chengdu in mid-July typically sees highs in the 35–39°C range, so the spread across the options is realistic. A single cloud cover difference or timing of a weather system can shift the peak by a degree or two. The market currently leans toward 38°C, but 37°C and 39°C each carry meaningful probability.

The odds right now

• 38°C36%
• 37°C27%
• 39°C19%
• 36°C9%
• 40°C7%
• 35°C4%
• 41°C2%
• 34°C1%
• 33°C1%
• 42°C or higher1%
• 32°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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