Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Chengdu, China? The answer is split into buckets — 37°C, 38°C, 39°C, and presumably others — and whichever bucket contains the actual peak temperature that day wins. Think of it like guessing the high on a weather forecast, but you're committing to your answer almost a year in advance. Chengdu in mid-July is deep summer, so the question is really about how intense that particular day's heat turns out to be. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket matches the official high reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on July 19, 2026, taken from the Weather Underground website for that station. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — no decimals. It can only officially close once the first data point for July 20 appears on that site, locking in the final number. One important detail: if Weather Underground revises the temperature before that July 20 data point appears, the revised number counts — but any corrections after that cutoff are ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is still more than a year away, the kind of information that would genuinely matter — extended seasonal forecasts, regional climate anomaly warnings, or unusual weather pattern signals for summer 2026 — simply doesn't exist yet at this range. What to watch closer to the date: long-range forecasts for central China's summer, and any news about heat waves affecting Sichuan province. Weather a year out is genuinely impossible to predict with precision — this is the core challenge. Even the best climate models can't reliably tell you whether a specific city will hit 37°C or 39°C on a specific day that far ahead. The spread across the top three options (35%, 25%, 22%) reflects real uncertainty, not a clear frontrunner. Chengdu's July highs historically cluster in this range, so no single bucket is a dramatic outlier — which means small day-to-day variation, cloud cover, or a passing weather system could easily shift the outcome by a degree or two.

The odds right now

• 38°C34%
• 39°C25%
• 37°C24%
• 36°C13%
• 40°C7%
• 35°C4%
• 41°C1%
• 34°C1%
• 33°C or below0%
• 42°C0%
• 43°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.