Highest temperature in Chicago on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Chicago get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it's asking which temperature range — think of them as buckets — will contain the single hottest reading of the day at O'Hare Airport. A 'Yes' for the 96-97°F range means the thermometer peaks somewhere in that two-degree window, not higher, not lower. It's a weather question dressed up as a multiple-choice prediction. The market settles based on the peak temperature recorded at Chicago O'Hare Airport (station KORD) on July 15, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever the single highest reading is that day — rounded to a whole number — determines which range wins. The data is locked in once July 16's first reading is published; any corrections after that cutoff are ignored. There is no human judgment call here — it's purely what that one weather station records. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market — they cover Malaysian education policy and an AI parenting story. There's no relevant weather forecast or climate data to point to. What would actually matter to watch for: extended forecasts for Chicago in mid-July as the date approaches, and any signs of heat waves or cold fronts moving through the Midwest around that time. Weather is genuinely hard to forecast more than a week or two out, and this market runs until July 2026, making precision nearly impossible right now. Mid-July in Chicago can swing several degrees depending on whether a heat dome settles in or a front rolls through. The market currently leans toward 96-97°F at 43%, with meaningful probability spread across neighboring ranges too — that spread honestly reflects how uncertain even a single day's peak temperature is months in advance.

The odds right now

• 96-97°F42%
• 94-95°F35%
• 98-99°F18%
• 100-101°F7%
• 92-93°F2%
• 102-103°F1%
• 90-91°F1%
• 104-105°F1%
• 89°F or below0%
• 106-107°F0%
• 108°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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