Highest temperature in Chicago on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will the single highest temperature of the day be at Chicago's O'Hare Airport? There are three possible outcomes — 78–79°F, 80–81°F, or 82–83°F — and whichever range contains that day's peak temperature wins. Think of it like guessing the afternoon high you'd see on a Chicago weather app, but narrowed to a specific two-degree window. The market settles based on the official peak temperature logged at O'Hare Airport (station code KORD) on July 19, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground — rounded to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit. It can only close after the first temperature reading for July 20 appears on that site, locking in the final number. Any temperature corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. The reading must fall cleanly inside one of the listed ranges. No recent news relevant to Chicago weather or this market was provided. The kind of news that would actually matter here is a weather forecast for Chicago around July 19, 2026 — specifically any early model runs or seasonal outlooks suggesting an unusually hot or mild stretch for that week. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes more than a year from now. Mid-July Chicago highs historically cluster in the upper 70s to low 80s, which is why the market spreads probability across a narrow band — but a passing cold front or heat dome can easily shift things by 5–10 degrees. Even close to the date, forecasts carry meaningful error. The two-degree resolution windows also mean a single degree separates the most likely outcome from the second-most.

The odds right now

• 80-81°F44%
• 78-79°F40%
• 82-83°F13%
• 76-77°F5%
• 84-85°F2%
• 86-87°F1%
• 74-75°F0%
• 88-89°F0%
• 71°F or below0%
• 72-73°F0%
• 90°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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