Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Chongqing get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at the Jiangbei Airport weather station. The three options — 39°C, 40°C, and 41°C — are the temperature brackets people are choosing between. To picture it: 40°C is about 104°F, a seriously intense summer heat. Chongqing is one of China's famously hot 'furnace cities', so temperatures in this range in mid-July are not unusual. The market settles on whichever bracket contains the peak temperature logged at the Chongqing Jiangbei Airport station on July 15, 2026, as recorded on Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — no decimals. It can only officially close once the first data point for July 16 appears on that site, giving time for any same-day corrections to be made. After that cutoff, no further revisions count, even if the data is later updated. The two news items provided — both from Malaysia — have no connection to Chongqing's weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch: any extended heat wave forecasts for southwest China in mid-July, or climate reports about this summer's pattern in the Sichuan Basin region. Weather on a specific future date is genuinely hard to pin down. The market currently leans toward 41°C (37%) but 40°C is close behind at 31%, meaning no single outcome is strongly dominant. Chongqing's summer highs vary year to year based on regional pressure systems, cloud cover, and whether a heat dome sets up. July 15 is still about a year away, making any forecast essentially speculative at this stage — even professional meteorologists can't reliably predict a single day's peak temperature that far out.

The odds right now

• 41°C38%
• 40°C30%
• 39°C16%
• 42°C14%
• 38°C3%
• 43°C2%
• 37°C1%
• 36°C0%
• 44°C or higher0%
• 34°C or below0%
• 35°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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