Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Chongqing get on July 19, 2026? Specifically, it wants to pin down the single highest temperature recorded that day at one weather station — the one at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport. The options are different temperature bands (35°C, 36°C, 37°C, and so on), and whichever band contains the actual peak temperature that day wins. In practical terms, 36°C is roughly 97°F — a very hot summer day. The market settles based on the highest temperature logged at Chongqing Jiangbei Airport on July 19, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — so 36.7°C would count as 36°C, not 37°C. The data is locked in once the first reading for July 20 is published; any corrections after that cutoff are ignored. There is no ambiguity about who decides — it is purely what that one weather website shows for that one station. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would matter here is a seasonal forecast for Chongqing's summer 2026 temperatures, or an unusual weather pattern — like a heat dome or La Niña signal — affecting eastern China in mid-July. Without that, the main reference point is historical: Chongqing is one of China's hottest summer cities, and mid-July highs in the mid-to-upper 30s°C are common. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market resolves over a year from now — far beyond any reliable forecast window. The spread across 35°C, 36°C, and 37°C reflects that real uncertainty: those three outcomes together account for about 83% of the market's probability, meaning the peak could land almost anywhere in a three-degree range. A single passing storm could cap temperatures; an unbroken heat wave could push them higher. There is no data today that resolves that question.

The odds right now

• 36°C39%
• 35°C24%
• 37°C22%
• 38°C9%
• 34°C8%
• 33°C2%
• 39°C or higher2%
• 32°C1%
• 31°C1%
• 30°C0%
• 29°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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