Highest temperature in Dallas on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: how hot will Dallas get on July 19, 2026? Specifically, it's asking which two-degree temperature band the single highest temperature of the day will fall into — think of it like guessing the peak reading on a thermometer that afternoon. The three main options are 96–97°F, 98–99°F, or 100–101°F. Mid-July in Dallas is reliably scorching, so all the options cluster around that classic Texas summer heat range. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded on July 19, 2026 at Dallas Love Field Station, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever the peak reading is that day — measured in whole degrees Fahrenheit — determines which range wins. The data is locked in once the first reading from July 20 appears on that site; any earlier corrections to July 19 readings count, but corrections made after that cutoff do not. One specific station, one specific data source, one specific day. The two news headlines provided are about university enrollment in North Dakota — completely unrelated to Dallas weather. There's no relevant recent news to point to here. For a market like this, what would matter is a seasonal weather forecast for the Dallas–Fort Worth area in mid-July 2026, or any unusual atmospheric pattern being flagged by meteorologists for that week. The honest challenge is that this market resolves more than a year from now, and weather forecasting beyond a week or two is genuinely unreliable. July in Dallas almost always brings intense heat, which is why all the options are bunched between 96°F and 101°F — but whether a particular day peaks at 97°F or 100°F can depend on cloud cover, wind direction, or a passing weather system that nobody can predict this far out. The spread across three fairly close ranges reflects that narrow but real uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 98-99°F36%
• 96-97°F35%
• 100-101°F20%
• 94-95°F7%
• 102-103°F4%
• 92-93°F2%
• 104-105°F1%
• 106-107°F0%
• 108-109°F0%
• 91°F or below0%
• 110°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.