Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Guangzhou, China? Specifically, it uses the weather station at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport as the measuring point. The market offers several temperature options — 30°C, 31°C, 32°C, and others — and whichever one matches the actual recorded high that day wins. Think of it like guessing the peak afternoon temperature on a summer day in a hot, humid southern Chinese city. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Guangzhou's Baiyun Airport weather station on July 15, 2026, as reported by the weather tracking site Wunderground. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — so 31.7°C would count as 31°C, not 32°C. It cannot officially close until the first data point for July 16 appears on that site, meaning the full day's readings must be in. Any corrections made after that first July 16 reading are ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of information that would matter here is seasonal weather forecasts for southern China in mid-July, or any signals about whether 2026 is shaping up to be an unusually hot or cool summer — for example, La Niña or El Niño conditions, which can shift regional temperatures by a degree or two. July in Guangzhou is reliably hot and humid, so the question isn't whether it will be warm — it will be. The real uncertainty is which specific degree it lands on, which is genuinely hard to pin down more than a year in advance. The market spreads its odds fairly evenly across 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C, reflecting that no single temperature is a clear frontrunner. A single passing cloud, a rain shower, or a brief heat surge can shift the daily peak by a degree or two, making precise forecasting nearly impossible this far out.

The odds right now

• 31°C28%
• 30°C26%
• 32°C25%
• 29°C12%
• 33°C8%
• 34°C1%
• 28°C1%
• 27°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%
• 26°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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