Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, what will be the hottest temperature of the day in Guangzhou, China? Specifically, it's measured at the city's main airport weather station. Participants pick a temperature — 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C — and whoever picks the one that matches the actual recorded high that day wins. In practical terms, those three options span a range roughly between a warm summer day (31°C / 88°F) and a hot one (33°C / 91°F). The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on July 16, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The reading is recorded in whole degrees Celsius — no decimals. The final answer is locked in once the first data point for July 17 appears on that site, after which any later corrections to the July 16 data are ignored. Whichever temperature bracket — 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C — matches that number is the winner. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. For a weather market like this, what would eventually matter is short-range forecasts for Guangzhou as July 16, 2026 approaches — particularly any signals of unusual heat or cooling patterns in southern China that week. Seasonal climate outlooks for summer 2026 might also become relevant closer to the date. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and July 16, 2026 is still well in the future. The market currently spreads its probability across all three options — 39% for 32°C, 27% for 31°C, and 24% for 33°C — suggesting real uncertainty with no strong consensus. Mid-July in Guangzhou is reliably hot, but whether any given day lands at 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C depends on wind, cloud cover, and weather systems that are essentially unknowable this far ahead.

The odds right now

• 32°C40%
• 31°C27%
• 33°C24%
• 30°C8%
• 34°C6%
• 29°C2%
• 35°C1%
• 36°C or higher0%
• 28°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 26°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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