Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Guangzhou get on July 19, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at the city's main airport weather station. You are not guessing whether it will be hot or cool in general — you are picking a specific degree, like 32°C, 33°C, or 34°C (roughly 90–93°F). The three leading options together cover about 75% of the market's weight, suggesting most participants expect a high somewhere in that 32–34°C band. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket matches the peak reading logged by the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport weather station on July 19, 2026, as reported on Weather Underground. The number is rounded to a whole degree Celsius — no decimals. The market waits until at least one data point from July 20 appears on that page before it officially closes, giving the station time to record the true daily peak. After that cutoff, any corrections to the July 19 data are ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of news that would matter here includes seasonal weather forecasts for southern China in mid-July, any unusual climate patterns in the Pearl River Delta region, or early-summer heat trends in Guangzhou — so those would be worth watching as July 2026 approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and July 19, 2026 is over a year away. The market's odds are spread fairly evenly across 32°C, 33°C, and 34°C — each within a few percentage points of the others — which reflects that honest uncertainty honestly. Guangzhou in mid-July is reliably hot and humid, but the difference between a 32°C day and a 34°C day can come down to cloud cover, a passing rain shower, or wind direction that nobody can foresee this far in advance.

The odds right now

• 33°C27%
• 34°C26%
• 32°C19%
• 35°C14%
• 31°C9%
• 30°C4%
• 36°C3%
• 29°C2%
• 37°C1%
• 28°C or below0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.