Highest temperature in Helsinki on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, what will the afternoon high temperature be in Helsinki? Specifically, it tracks the single highest temperature reading of that day at Helsinki-Vantaa Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius. The three main options — 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C — each represent a narrow one-degree band. To picture the scale: 23°C is a pleasant summer day, roughly 73°F, while 24°C is slightly warmer and 22°C a touch cooler. The market settles based on the peak temperature recorded at Helsinki-Vantaa Airport on July 16, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. Whatever the single highest whole-degree Celsius reading is that day, the matching option wins. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point for July 17 appears before it finalizes, giving time for any same-day corrections. After that cutoff, no further revisions count. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, what would actually matter to watch closer to the date are extended weather forecasts for southern Finland in mid-July, and any unusual climate patterns — like a persistent heat dome or cool Atlantic airflow — entering the region that week. Weather is genuinely hard to predict even a week out, let alone a year. The spread across just three degrees — 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C — shows how tight the range is; a small shift in wind direction or cloud cover on that specific day changes everything. Helsinki's July highs historically cluster around these values, so none of the options is far-fetched. The market currently leans toward 23°C, but the real honest answer is that pinning one specific day's peak temperature this far out is close to a coin flip across adjacent degrees.

The odds right now

• 23°C40%
• 24°C30%
• 22°C18%
• 21°C7%
• 25°C4%
• 26°C3%
• 20°C2%
• 19°C or below1%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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