Highest temperature in Helsinki on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, what will the highest temperature of the day be in Helsinki? The three leading options — 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C — cover a narrow band from a cool summer day to a mildly warm one. Think of 20°C as a pleasant, light-jacket-optional afternoon. A Yes for any option simply means the thermometer peaked at that exact degree on that specific day. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Helsinki Vantaa Airport on July 20, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Celsius — no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 21 appears on that site. Any small corrections to the July 20 data are allowed until that cutoff, after which the number is final. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The only headline available is about an unrelated event in Pakistan. For this kind of market, what would actually matter is a weather forecast for Helsinki in mid-July 2026 — specifically any patterns suggesting unusual warmth or a cold snap around that date. Those forecasts won't be meaningful until a few days before July 20. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a week out, and this market resolves on a single day's peak reading at one specific airport station. The difference between a 19°C and 21°C day can come down to whether clouds break in the afternoon or a mild breeze shifts direction — things no model nails weeks ahead. The odds are spread fairly evenly across three close options, reflecting that honest uncertainty. A single degree either way changes the outcome entirely.

The odds right now

• 20°C41%
• 21°C37%
• 22°C11%
• 19°C11%
• 18°C2%
• 17°C1%
• 23°C1%
• 16°C or below1%
• 24°C1%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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