Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 13, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Hong Kong? The three options act like buckets — 32°C, 33°C, or 34°C — and whichever bucket contains the actual peak temperature wins. For context, 33°C feels like a very hot, humid summer day; 34°C is noticeably hotter still. This is purely about one number from one official weather station on one specific day. The market settles based on the official 'Absolute Daily Max' figure published by the Hong Kong Observatory for July 13, 2026 — the single highest temperature recorded that day, measured to one decimal place (so 33.4°C would fall in the 33°C bucket, for example). The first published figure is final; any later corrections don't count. The market can't close until the Observatory publishes that day's data, which typically happens shortly after the date. None of the provided news headlines relate to Hong Kong's weather or any climate conditions that would affect this question. There's no recent weather data to point to here. The kind of news that would matter is a Hong Kong weather forecast for July 13, or reports of an unusual heat event or typhoon approaching the region around that date. Mid-July in Hong Kong is reliably hot and humid, so extreme cold is not a real possibility — but pinning down a single day's peak to within one degree is genuinely difficult. Weather forecasts lose precision beyond a few days out, and Hong Kong's summer temperatures can shift based on wind direction, cloud cover, or nearby typhoon activity. The market is fairly split between 32°C and 33°C, reflecting that honest uncertainty about which exact degree the thermometer will land on.

The odds right now

• 33°C45%
• 32°C38%
• 34°C14%
• 31°C3%
• 35°C1%
• 30°C1%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C or higher0%
• 27°C or below0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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