Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple factual question: how hot will Hong Kong get on July 14, 2026? Specifically, it's asking which temperature bucket the day's single highest recorded temperature will fall into — 29°C, 30°C, or 31°C. A 'Yes' for 29°C means the hottest moment of that day stays between 29.0°C and 29.9°C; a 'Yes' for 30°C means it peaks somewhere between 30.0°C and 30.9°C; and so on. Think of it as a forecast bracket, not a trading position. After July 14, 2026 passes, the Hong Kong Observatory publishes an official daily climate record called the 'Daily Extract,' which includes the single highest temperature reached that day, measured to one decimal place. Whatever bucket that number falls into wins. The first published figure is final — if the Observatory later corrects or revises it, that revision does not count. The market can only settle after that official record is published, so there may be a short delay after the day itself. The two news headlines provided — one about an AI autism test, one about a boat tragedy in Vietnam — have no connection to Hong Kong weather or this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch: any typhoon or weather system approaching Hong Kong in the days before July 14, or updated seasonal forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory. Mid-July in Hong Kong is deep summer, and the market reflects that: 29°C and 30°C together account for about 77% of the odds, suggesting the market expects a hot but not extreme day. The real challenge is that daily peak temperatures are genuinely hard to pin down to a single degree. A passing cloud, a brief rain shower, or a shift in wind direction can push the peak up or down by a degree or two. Weather at this level of precision — one specific day, one specific degree — is inherently noisy even close to the date.

The odds right now

• 29°C42%
• 30°C38%
• 31°C12%
• 28°C9%
• 27°C2%
• 32°C2%
• 33°C1%
• 26°C0%
• 24°C or below0%
• 25°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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