Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will be the hottest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on July 15, 2026? The market is split into temperature ranges — currently 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C are the main options — and you are essentially guessing which bucket that day's peak temperature will fall into. Think of it like predicting whether the afternoon high will be a mild summer day, a warm one, or a hot one. It settles based on the official daily maximum temperature published by the Hong Kong Observatory for July 15, 2026 — specifically the 'Absolute Daily Max' figure in their Daily Extract. That number is recorded to one decimal place (like 29.4°C), and whichever temperature range contains it wins. The market cannot close until the Observatory publishes that data. Importantly, any later corrections to the recorded temperature are ignored — the first published figure is final. None of the provided news headlines relate to Hong Kong weather or temperature on July 15, 2026. No relevant recent news was provided. The kind of update that would matter here is a weather forecast or heat advisory from the Hong Kong Observatory for that specific date. Weather forecasting is genuinely uncertain even a day ahead, and this date is over a year away, making precision extremely difficult. July in Hong Kong is hot and humid, so the market is clustered in a realistic range — but whether the peak lands at 28, 29, 30, or even higher depends on variables like cloud cover, wind, and whether a typhoon or weather system happens to pass through that specific day. The spread across three close options reflects how hard it is to pin down one exact temperature.

The odds right now

• 29°C37%
• 30°C30%
• 28°C21%
• 31°C12%
• 32°C3%
• 27°C3%
• 33°C1%
• 26°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%
• 24°C or below0%
• 25°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.