Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Hong Kong on July 16, 2026? The three main options — 29°C, 30°C, or 31°C — each represent a one-degree range, and you're essentially guessing which band the peak temperature falls into. Think of it as predicting whether that afternoon will feel like a warm summer day, a hot one, or a very hot one — with the official thermometer at the Hong Kong Observatory being the judge. The market settles based on one specific number: the "Absolute Daily Maximum" temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on July 16, 2026, published in their official Daily Extract. The temperature is measured to one decimal place (for example, 30.4°C), and it lands in whichever degree range contains that reading. One important detail: if the Observatory later corrects or revises the number after first publishing it, the revision does not count — only the first published figure is used. None of the provided news headlines relate to Hong Kong's weather or any climate conditions that would affect this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of update that would actually matter is a short-range weather forecast for Hong Kong around July 16, 2026 — that is what to watch for as the date approaches. July mid-summer in Hong Kong is reliably hot and humid, so the question isn't whether it'll be warm — it will be. The real challenge is that daily peak temperatures vary by just a degree or two depending on clouds, rain, wind, or a passing storm, and those details are essentially unpredictable more than a few days out. The market currently spreads its weight across 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C fairly evenly, which reflects that even with a predictable climate, pinning down one specific degree range a year in advance is genuinely uncertain.

The odds right now

• 30°C33%
• 29°C32%
• 28°C18%
• 31°C16%
• 32°C5%
• 33°C2%
• 27°C1%
• 34°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 25°C or below0%
• 35°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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