Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will be the hottest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on July 19, 2026? The three choices — 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C — each represent a one-degree bucket, and you pick the one that contains the actual peak reading for that day. To picture it: 30°C is about 86°F, a hot and humid summer day in Hong Kong. The market is essentially a weather forecast for a single afternoon high, measured to one decimal place by the official Hong Kong Observatory. The market settles based on the official 'Absolute Daily Max' temperature published by the Hong Kong Observatory for July 19, 2026, in their Daily Extract data. Whatever that number is — say, 30.4°C — it falls into the 30°C bucket, and that option wins. The key edge case: only the first published figure counts. If the Observatory later corrects or revises the number, that revision is ignored. The market also cannot close until the Observatory actually publishes the data for that date. None of the recent news provided relates to this market. There are no weather reports, forecasts, or Hong Kong climate updates in the headlines given. What would actually matter here is any meteorological forecast for Hong Kong around July 19, 2026 — such as an official weather outlook, typhoon activity nearby, or a heat advisory — none of which are available in the provided news. Weather on a specific future date is genuinely hard to call precisely, even for meteorologists with the best models. Mid-July in Hong Kong is consistently hot and humid, which is why the market clusters tightly around 29–31°C — but a single degree separates the top three options, and the actual reading could easily shift based on cloud cover, wind, or a passing shower. The spread across three close options shows the market sees real uncertainty across that narrow band, with no single outcome commanding a strong majority.

The odds right now

• 30°C37%
• 31°C27%
• 29°C21%
• 32°C16%
• 33°C5%
• 34°C1%
• 35°C or higher0%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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