Highest temperature in Houston on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, how hot will it get in Houston? Specifically, it wants to know which temperature range the day's single highest reading will fall into — with 80–81°F, 82–83°F, and 84–85°F as the main options. A 'Yes' on any range means that range captured the peak temperature that day. Think of it as picking the right band on a thermometer for one specific afternoon in a Houston summer. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at William P. Hobby Airport on July 14, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whichever two-degree range that number falls into wins. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Fahrenheit — so 82.7°F counts as 82°F. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 15 appears on the site, after which any corrections to the July 14 data no longer count. No recent news was provided that relates to this market. What would genuinely matter closer to the date: official weather forecasts for Houston around July 14, 2026, and any regional heat patterns or climate signals for that summer. Houston in mid-July is historically one of the hottest points of the year, so broader seasonal outlooks would be the most relevant thing to watch for. The main challenge is that this is more than a year away — long-range weather forecasting past about two weeks is genuinely unreliable, even for meteorologists. July in Houston is reliably hot, but whether the peak on one specific day lands at 81°F or 83°F depends on short-term factors like cloud cover, wind, and humidity that no one can know this far out. The market is fairly spread across three ranges, reflecting honest uncertainty about a two-degree difference that could swing either way.

The odds right now

• 82-83°F37%
• 80-81°F30%
• 84-85°F17%
• 78-79°F15%
• 86-87°F3%
• 76-77°F1%
• 88-89°F1%
• 74-75°F0%
• 92°F or higher0%
• 73°F or below0%
• 90-91°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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